Operation Foresight

Phase 0: Strategic Curiosity Mode Protocol

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🛡️ Phase 0 Research Output

Strategic Curiosity Mode (SCM) Triggers

Date: 2025-04-23

Research Context

This document defines clear criteria for when to activate Strategic Curiosity Mode (SCM) and establishes protocols for SCM exploration, documentation, and integration into the main research flow.

Task ID: scm_001

Objective

Define clear criteria for when to activate Strategic Curiosity Mode (SCM) and establish protocols for SCM exploration, documentation, and integration into the main research flow.

Strategic Curiosity Mode Overview

SCM serves as a critical cognitive safety mechanism that enables exploration of edge cases, anomalies, and unexpected patterns that might otherwise be overlooked in a linear research process. It provides a structured framework for:

  1. Identifying non-obvious connections between disparate observations
  2. Exploring low-probability but high-impact scenarios
  3. Questioning implicit assumptions in the research process
  4. Investigating anomalous or contradictory data points
  5. Developing speculative models for emerging phenomena

Trigger Criteria Categories

1. Anomaly-Based Triggers

SCM activates when data or patterns significantly deviate from expectations in ways that:

  • • Statistical Anomalies: Observations that fall outside expected statistical distributions
  • • Pattern Disruptions: Breaks in otherwise consistent patterns or trends
  • • Contradiction Clusters: Multiple data points that contradict established understanding
  • • Temporal Anomalies: Unexpected changes in trend velocity or acceleration

Threshold: ≥2 related anomalies OR 1 extreme anomaly (>3σ deviation)

2. Gap-Based Triggers

SCM activates when significant information or conceptual gaps are identified:

  • • Data Shadows: Areas where expected data is conspicuously absent
  • • Explanatory Gaps: Inability to account for observed phenomena with current models
  • • Definition Boundaries: Edge cases that challenge categorical definitions
  • • Stakeholder Blindspots: Key perspectives missing from current analysis

Threshold: Any gap that affects ≥2 threat categories OR impacts core governance mechanisms

3. Combinatorial Triggers

SCM activates when previously unconnected elements show potential meaningful interaction:

  • • Cross-Domain Transfers: Techniques or concepts moving between disparate domains
  • • Capability Convergence: Multiple technologies/approaches converging unexpectedly
  • • Actor-Vector Novelty: New combinations of threat actors and attack vectors
  • • Governance-Threat Interactions: Unexpected effects of governance on threat landscape

Threshold: Novel combination with potential systemic impact OR multiple concurrent combinations

4. Emergence-Based Triggers

SCM activates when signs of emergent properties or behaviors are detected:

  • • Feedback Loops: Self-reinforcing or self-dampening cycles appearing
  • • Phase Transitions: Sharp transitions in system behavior
  • • Threshold Effects: Evidence of critical mass accumulation
  • • Complex Adaptations: Systems adapting to interventions in unforeseen ways

Threshold: Any clear emergence pattern that wasn't explicitly modeled in framework

5. Meta-Analysis Triggers

SCM activates when research process itself shows potential blindspots:

  • • Methodology Limitations: When current approaches show systematic bias or limitation
  • • Framework Inadequacy: Tools/taxonomies struggling to categorize observations
  • • Consensus Clustering: Too much agreement among diverse sources (potential groupthink)
  • • Analytical Monoculture: Overreliance on single analytical framework

Threshold: ≥2 methodological limitations affecting multiple research phases

SCM Activation Protocol

When a trigger is identified:

  1. Document Trigger
    • Capture trigger source, category, and threshold assessment
    • Record timestamp and research phase context
    • Document triggering observations or patterns precisely
  2. Define Exploration Parameters
    • Set time/resource bounds for exploration (default: 20% of phase resources)
    • Establish exploration objective(s)
    • Define success criteria and integration approach
  3. Execute Exploration Mode
    • Apply appropriate logic primitive sequence
    • Document all speculative paths, including unsuccessful ones
    • Maintain rigorous labeling of speculation vs. evidence-based conclusions
  4. Evaluate & Integrate
    • Categorize findings as:
    • confirmed: Well-supported finding ready for main research
    • plausible: Reasonable hypothesis needing further investigation
    • speculative: Interesting but weakly supported possibility
    • Determine integration approach based on category
    • Update main research flow as appropriate

Documentation Requirements

All SCM activities must be documented in:

  1. projects/operation_foresight/scm/trigger_log.md - Record of all triggers and decisions
  2. projects/operation_foresight/scm/explorations/ - Individual exploration documents
  3. projects/operation_foresight/scm/integration_decisions.md - How findings were incorporated

Each SCM exploration document must contain:

---
trigger_id: scm_trigger_[id]
trigger_type: [anomaly|gap|combinatorial|emergence|meta]
activation_date: YYYY-MM-DD
research_phase: [0-5]
status: [active|completed|integrated|archived]
---

## Trigger Context
Brief description of what triggered SCM activation

## Exploration Questions
Specific questions being investigated

## Methodology
Logic primitives and process combinations used

## Findings
Results categorized as confirmed/plausible/speculative

## Integration Recommendation
How findings should be integrated into main research

Integration Mechanisms

SCM findings can be integrated into the main research flow through:

  1. Direct Incorporation: Adding confirmed findings to phase outputs
  2. Appendix Inclusion: Adding plausible/speculative findings as clearly marked appendices
  3. Framework Modification: Updating research framework based on meta-analysis triggers
  4. New Research Vector: Initiating entirely new research paths
  5. Flag for External Review: Identifying areas needing external/specialized expertise

SCM Trigger Examples for Operation Foresight

Examples of phenomena that would trigger SCM in this specific project:

  1. Anomaly: Recent successful attack doesn't fit known attack typologies
  2. Gap: No governance models address specific class of threats
  3. Combinatorial: Consumer AI tools being used in specialized cyber attacks
  4. Emergence: Defensive AI measures creating new vulnerability classes
  5. Meta: Threat framework cannot categorize 20%+ of recent incidents

Next Actions

  1. Create SCM trigger log → scm_log_001
  2. Establish SCM exploration template → scm_template_001
  3. Integrate SCM monitoring into observation phase setup → observe_setup_001
  4. Define integration workflow for Phase 1 → integrate_001
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